Petro-dollars (Petro-dollar) is the mid-1970s, oil-exporting countries as oil prices increase after the increase in oil revenues, after deducting for the development of national economy and other domestic spending in surplus funds. As the oil in the international market based on dollar-denominated and settled, it was all the oil revenues to oil producing countries collectively known as petrodollars. The current estimated oil dollars from 800 billion to 1 trillion U.S. dollars, as an international capital market, a remarkable great strength. Western economic experts are very concerned about how the huge oil dollars will be working in the world economy. Experts said the oil dollars or consumed, or save it. If the oil-exporting countries to use oil money, that they will expand imports from other countries, in order to maintain global demand. However, it seems they do not spend a lot of money, but tend to remain higher than the oil-importing country's savings rate.
1973 Middle East War, resulting in a sharp rise in oil prices, the formation of a worldwide energy crisis. October 1977, OPEC announced that oil price from $ 3.011 per barrel increased to $ 5.11. Later, again increased to $ 11.65, the result that the world has greatly changed the structure of international balance of payments. These changes in: revenue surge in oil output, oil-exporting countries, a huge balance of payments surplus; and oil-consuming countries in the international balance of payments surge in oil input expenditures, there has been a huge deficit. It turned out that the pattern of international balance of payments as "surplus developed countries to developing countries for the deficit," this pattern of international balance of payments by oil price increases after impact, great changes have taken place.
In the oil consuming countries, the developed countries suffer more serious blow, the developed countries due to oil price increases and the current account showed a large deficit and more. In contrast, oil exporters current account surplus is a huge place - this is the "petrodollars." For the size of such funds, there are different estimates, according to the general projection, the 1974 oil-exporting countries of oil from the total income of about $ 115 billion, while its regular input of about 400 billion U.S. dollars, which account surplus of about $ 75 billion. The surplus on the one hand that the oil-consuming countries to reduce the amount of foreign exchange, which is some of the huge balance of payments deficit in the developed countries the main reason, on the other hand, said oil-exporting countries rich in oil dollars.
The huge oil dollars, both for oil-importing countries or the oil-exporting countries, or even the entire world economy, has a significant impact. For oil-exporting countries, because the huge petrodollar revenues, while its domestic investment market is small, can not absorb so many dollars, the capital output must be used in foreign countries. For the Western industrialized countries, due to a substantial increase in expenditure on foreign oil imports, balance of payments was mostly a huge deficit, if austerity measures, or to seek to restrict imports of oil and other balance of payments situation improved, it may lead to economic recession and affect the development of world trade. Therefore, most industrial countries want petrodollars back - back from the oil-exporting countries to oil-importing countries, which appeared in the return of petrodollars.
The return of petrodollars in the initial period, mainly to Europe money markets, the New York financial markets, the world's financial institutions and international financial institutions, its inflow region mainly in Western Europe, Britain and the United States. Developing countries hope to use more oil dollars to develop the economy.
However, this huge oil dollars, and gave the international financial markets instability. Petrodollars are mostly in the nature of international short-term funds, may be large and rapid international movement. And this move, in turn seriously affect the stability of international financial markets. Therefore, countries in the world are closely watching changes in petro-dollars question.
Petrodollars - have scalePetro-dollars from the 1980s, the rising international oil prices onto the track, but the world daily oil production does not exceed the standards of the 1970s. Since 1999, OPEC country's oil export earnings as oil prices rise again showed strong growth momentum, by 2005, OPEC countries, oil revenues exceeded the annual $ 500 billion. Therefore, the international capital market, the size of nearly one trillion dollars of oil, simply means that Shige 30 years, net oil-exporting countries has profoundly changed the pattern of distribution of global output, they are assigned to a larger piece of cake, only this only, piece of cake means a net importer of oil exporting countries to benefit transfer.
According to statistics, last year including the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia, the world's second largest oil exporter and third largest oil exporter Norway's oil exports received a total of $ 700 billion in oil revenues. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that oil-exporting countries in 2005, real oil revenues close to $ 800 billion, much higher than the $ 330 billion in 2002. According to Bank for International Settlements estimates that from 1998 to 2005, OPEC countries due to rising oil prices bring additional oil export earnings over 1.3 trillion U.S. dollars. Taking into account the marginal propensity to import OPEC countries is only about 40%, but less developed domestic financial system, together with non-OPEC oil dollar surplus, the international capital markets thereby increasing nearly one trillion dollars is entirely possible of.
Petro-dollars - economic impactPetrodollars in the West is very concerned about the huge economic experts how petrodollars to flow in the world economy. Experts said the oil dollars or consumed, or save it. If the oil-exporting countries to use oil money, that they will expand imports from other countries, in order to maintain global demand. However, it seems they do not spend a lot of money, but tend to remain higher than the oil-importing country's savings rate. United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, the savings rate up to 40% of GDP. Therefore, the oil-consuming countries to oil revenue transfer would lead to slowdown of global demand, have a negative impact on the world economy.
If a large number of oil and oil-exporting countries will be U.S. $ savings, investment in global capital markets, they can for the oil importing countries to finance current account deficit, in fact, tantamount to borrow money for consumption of high-priced oil importing countries. However, this increased demand for foreign financial assets, will increase asset prices, oil-importing countries down bond yields and help stimulate the economic vitality of oil-importing countries. Experience shows that a large number of petrodollars for oil-producing country's economy can be a good thing, it could be a bad thing, the problem is how to use and saving those dollars. Some experts believe that the oil windfall profits by oil-producing countries will slow economic reforms. The current cost of oil-exporting countries less than in the past, maintain a large surplus, to pay debts, holdings of assets.
Dollar after oil, the world economy and international financial had a tremendous impact: first, to provide a rich oil resources, and promote the economic development of these countries to change their long-standing single economic structure, and gradually establish a independent, complete national economic system. Second, the different types of the country's international balance of payments imbalances in place a new international reserve balance of power in a structural change. Such as oil-rich Russia, rising oil prices, make more oil dollars. 2005 is expected to Russian oil export revenues of about $ 90 billion. As of September 18, 2005, Russia not only to early repayment of external debt owed to Paris Club, but also gold and foreign exchange reserves increased to $ 149.754 billion. Third, increasing the international financial market turbulence. Put to the international oil market after the U.S. dollar, on the one hand the power to enrich the international credit, in many countries to meet the long message needs loanable funds; the other hand, caused a lot of hot money flows between countries, sometimes to invest in stocks, sometimes invest in gold and national currencies, the stock, gold and foreign exchange market more volatile.
